A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
